ModelSpec is an analysis of alternatives for AI models: it decides which models fit a job from your requirements, sourced benchmarks and real cost, and shows its work.
Claude Opus 5.5 vs Gemini 3.8 Flash for Regulated data, as of 2026-09-23
Find an offering with the data-handling commitments needed for regulated workloads.
Worked example as of 2026-09-23, from the public data image.
What the evidence says
The evidence separates them: Claude Opus 5.5 leads for Regulated data, with a 79% chance of being the best model in the full lineup for this job, as of 2026-09-23.
Gemini 3.8 Flash has a 20% chance of matching or beating Claude Opus 5.5 on this job's objective.
probability bands: a model joins the leader when P(its score >= the leader's) >= 0.25 under the score posteriors; a weighted capability with an 80% interval wider than 2.8 is not enough evidence
Decision status: answered. P(best) and score intervals retain the full ranked lineup for this job, including models beyond this pair and models with thin evidence. Models with unknown objective values remain unranked and are outside this probability. P(best) is not a head-to-head probability. Separation from this challenger need not mean a unique best model across that lineup.
Scores and score intervals use the objective's dimensionless normalised units. Cost per task is in USD for the selected offering and the applied spec's task size. When task size is omitted, the engine uses its documented default. Unavailable means the engine returned no value.
| Model | Score | Score interval | P(best), ranked job lineup | Cost per task, USD | Selected offering: provider / region / tier | Capability estimates and intervals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 0.859459 | [0.53015, 1.188769] | 79% | 0.24 | google-vertex-ai / global / standard |
|
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 0.638121 | [0.580999, 0.695244] | 12% | 0.045 | google-vertex-ai / global / standard |
|
HIPAA-ready offerings; quality first, cost second.
Requirements
offering.data.trains_on_customer_data = No: Customer prompts and outputs must not be available for model training.offering.data.zero_retention = Yes: The provider must offer a mode that stores neither prompts nor outputs.offering.attestation.baa = Yes: The provider must offer a HIPAA business associate agreement for the service.
Preferences
chat_preference: Prefer the stronger general assistant among compliant offerings.-offering.cost_per_task: Prefer the lower task cost after the compliance gates pass.
Applied template spec
spec_version- 1
where- offering.data.trains_on_customer_data = No
- offering.data.zero_retention = Yes
- offering.attestation.baa = Yes
optimizeweightschat_preference- 0.6
-offering.cost_per_task- 0.4
Evidence for Claude Opus 5.5
| Benchmark | Version | Measurement | Unit | Published interval | Evidence date | Measurement conditions | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arena_webdev | webdev / overall, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1818.41 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-23 |
| Source |
Missing facts for Claude Opus 5.5
model.hardware_fit_indeterminate: unknownmodel.languages: unknownmodel.parameters_total: unknownorigin.base_lineage: not_disclosedorigin.weights_hosting: not_disclosedoffering.api_model_id: unknownoffering.attestation.soc2: not_disclosedoffering.router_slug: unknownoffering.speed.throughput: unknownoffering.speed.time_to_first_token: unknown
Evidence for Gemini 3.8 Flash
| Benchmark | Version | Measurement | Unit | Published interval | Evidence date | Measurement conditions | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| arena_elo_coding | Text Arena coding category, raw (not style-controlled) | 1513.97 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_elo_overall | Text Arena overall, raw (not style-controlled) | 1494.67 | Arena score (Elo scale) | [1486.14, 1503.21] | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_elo_style_control | text_style_control / overall, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1493.01 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_business | text_style_control / industry_business_and_management_and_financial_operations, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1495.21 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_chinese | text_style_control / chinese, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1543.31 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_coding | text_style_control / coding, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1534.96 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_creative_writing | text_style_control / creative_writing, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1495.85 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_english | text_style_control / english, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1502.66 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_expert | text_style_control / expert, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1502.04 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_factuality | text_factuality / overall, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1489.99 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_hard_prompts | text_style_control / hard_prompts, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1517.19 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_industry_entertainment_sports_media | text_style_control / industry_entertainment_and_sports_and_media, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1465.53 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_industry_mathematical | text_style_control / industry_mathematical, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1519.73 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_industry_software_it_services | text_style_control / industry_software_and_it_services, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1518.01 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_instruction_following | text_style_control / instruction_following, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1491.7 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_legal | text_style_control / industry_legal_and_government, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1482.91 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_longer_query | text_style_control / longer_query, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1508.86 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_medicine | text_style_control / industry_medicine_and_healthcare, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1498.96 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_multi_turn | text_style_control / multi_turn, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1513.3 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_non_english | text_style_control / non_english, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1478.34 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_russian | text_style_control / russian, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1494.62 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_science | text_style_control / industry_life_and_physical_and_social_science, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1506.01 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_sc_writing | text_style_control / industry_writing_and_literature_and_language, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1499.8 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-13 |
| Source |
| arena_webdev | webdev / overall, latest split, revision 1880dbebff5b | 1583.75 | Arena score (Elo scale) | Unavailable | 2026-09-23 |
| Source |
Missing facts for Gemini 3.8 Flash
model.hardware_fit_indeterminate: unknownmodel.languages: unknownmodel.parameters_total: unknownorigin.base_lineage: not_disclosedorigin.weights_hosting: not_disclosedoffering.api_model_id: unknownoffering.attestation.soc2: not_disclosedoffering.router_slug: unknownoffering.speed.throughput: unknownoffering.speed.time_to_first_token: unknown
What this template teaches
Governance promises are Musts because a high score cannot compensate for a missing data commitment.
Decision dec_5b1d83c95a0aa7bf76aef9d9 on public snapshot snap_05a963d2477ac2fb.
Read the full dated job answer.
The live board uses current data. This link applies the template to its full lineup.
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